Imihindagurikire y'ikirere ku isi

Mu mikoreshereze rusange, imihindagurikire y’ikirere isobanura ubushyuhe bw’isi - ubwiyongere bukabije bw’ubushyuhe bwo ku isi - n’ingaruka zabwo ku miterere y’ikirere ku isi. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe mu buryo bwagutse ikubiyemo n’imihindagurikire yigihe kirekire y’ikirere cy’isi. Ubwiyongere bw'ubushyuhe buringaniye ku isi burihuta kurusha impinduka zabanjirije iyi, kandi ahanini buterwa n'abantu batwika ibicanwa. [2] Gukoresha lisansi y’ibinyabuzima, gutema amashyamba, hamwe n’ubuhinzi n’inganda byongera imyuka ihumanya ikirere, cyane cyane karuboni ya dioxyde na metani. Imyuka ya parike ikurura ubushyuhe isi imurika nyuma yo gushyuha izuba. Umubare munini wiyi myuka ifata ubushyuhe bwinshi mukirere cyo hasi cyisi, bigatuma ubushyuhe bwisi.

Kubera imihindagurikire y’ikirere, ubutayu buragenda bwiyongera, mu gihe imivumba y’ubushyuhe n’umuriro bigenda byiyongera. Ubushyuhe bwiyongera muri Arctique bwagize uruhare mu gushonga permafrost, umwiherero w’ibarafu no gutakaza urubura rwo mu nyanja. Ubushyuhe bwo hejuru nabwo butera ibihuhusi bikaze, amapfa, hamwe n’ikirere gikabije. Imihindagurikire y’ibidukikije mu misozi, mu nyanja ya korali, no muri Arctique ihatira amoko menshi kwimuka cyangwa kuzimangana. Nubwo imbaraga zo kugabanya ubushyuhe buzaza zigenda neza, ingaruka zimwe zizakomeza ibinyejana byinshi. Muri byo harimo gushyushya inyanja, aside yo mu nyanja no kuzamuka kw'inyanja.

Imihindagurikire y’ibihe ibangamiye abantu ibura ry’ibiribwa n’amazi, imyuzure yiyongera, ubushyuhe bukabije, indwara nyinshi, ndetse n’ubukungu. Kwimuka kwabantu namakimbirane nabyo birashobora kuba ibisubizo. Ishami ry'Umuryango w'Abibumbye ryita ku Buzima (OMS) rivuga ko imihindagurikire y’ikirere ibangamiye ubuzima bw’isi yose mu kinyejana cya 21. [11] Abaturage barashobora guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere binyuze mu mbaraga nko kurinda inkombe cyangwa kwagura uburyo bwo guhumeka ikirere, ariko ingaruka zimwe ntizishobora kwirindwa. Ibihugu bikennye bifite uruhare runini ku byuka bihumanya ikirere ku isi, nyamara bifite ubushobozi buke bwo guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere.

Ingaruka nyinshi z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere zimaze kugaragara ku kigero cya 1,2 ° C (2,2 ° F). Ubushyuhe bwiyongera buzongera izo ngaruka kandi burashobora gukurura ingingo, nko gushonga k'urubura rwa Greenland. Mu masezerano y'i Paris ya 2015, ibihugu byose byemeranije gukomeza gushyuha "munsi ya 2 ° C". Icyakora, imihigo yatanzwe mu masezerano, ubushyuhe bw’isi buzakomeza kugera kuri 2.7 ° C (4.9 ° F) mu mpera z'ikinyejana. Kugabanya ubushyuhe bugera kuri 1.5 ° C bizasaba kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere mu 2030 no kugera kuri net-zero bitarenze 2050. [14]

Umuriro wa Bobcat muri Monrovia, CA, Ku ya 10 Nzeri 2020

Amashanyarazi ya koloni ya korali ya Acropora

Ikiyaga cyumye muri Kaliforuniya, kikaba kibamo megaderi mbi cyane mu myaka 1.200.

Ingaruka zimwe z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, yerekeza ku isaha uhereye hejuru ibumoso: Inkongi y'umuriro yakajije umurego kubera ubushyuhe n amapfa, ubukana bw’amapfa bwangiza amazi, no guhumanya amakorali yatewe n’ubushyuhe bwo mu nyanja.

Kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya bisaba kubyara amashanyarazi aturuka kuri karubone nkeya aho gutwika ibicanwa. Iri hinduka ririmo gukuraho amakara na gaze gasanzwe y’amashanyarazi, kongera cyane gukoresha umuyaga, izuba, n’ubundi bwoko bw’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu, no kugabanya ikoreshwa ry’ingufu. Amashanyarazi akomoka ku masoko adatanga imyuka ya karubone azakenera gusimbuza ibicanwa biva mu kirere kugira ngo bitwarwe n’amashanyarazi, inyubako zishyushya, n’inganda zikora inganda. [16] Carbone irashobora kandi gukurwa mu kirere, urugero nko kongera amashyamba no guhinga hakoreshejwe uburyo bufata karubone mu butaka.

Amagambo

Igice cyurukurikirane kuri

Imihindagurikire y’ibihe

Imihindagurikire yubushyuhe bwisi kwisi mumyaka 170 ishize (umurongo wumukara) ugereranije na 1850–1900.

InshinganoIbikorwaMitigationAdaptation

Amavu n'amavuko

Impamvu

Ingaruka

Kugabanya ubukana

Kurwanya

Sosiyete

Ukurikije ahantu

Agashusho Urutonde rw'amagambo

vte

Mbere ya za 1980, igihe bitari byumvikana neza niba ubushyuhe bwo kongera imyuka ihumanya ikirere bwarushije imbaraga ubukonje bw’imyuka ihumanya ikirere ihumanya ikirere, abahanga mu bya siyansi bakoresheje iryo jambo ry’imihindagurikire y’ikirere batabishaka bavuga ku ngaruka z’abantu ku kirere.

Mu myaka ya za 1980, ijambo ubushyuhe bw’isi n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere byabaye byinshi. Nubwo ayo magambo yombi rimwe na rimwe akoreshwa mu buryo bumwe, [20] mu buhanga, ubushyuhe bw’isi bwerekeza gusa ku bushyuhe bw’ubushyuhe bwo hejuru, mu gihe imihindagurikire y’ikirere isobanura impinduka zose z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ku isi. Ubushyuhe bukabije ku isi - bwakoreshejwe mu 1975 [21] - bwabaye ijambo ryamamaye cyane nyuma y’uko umuhanga mu bumenyi bw’ikirere wa NASA, James Hansen ayikoresheje mu buhamya yatanze mu 1988 muri Sena y’Amerika. Kuva mu myaka ya za 2000, imihindagurikire y’ikirere yiyongereye mu mikoreshereze. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe irashobora kandi kwerekeza cyane ku mpinduka zatewe n'abantu cyangwa impinduka kamere mu mateka y'isi.

Abahanga mu bya siyansi, abanyapolitiki n’ibitangazamakuru bitandukanye ubu bakoresha ijambo ikibazo cy’ikirere cyangwa ibihe byihutirwa by’ikirere kugira ngo baganire ku bijyanye n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, ndetse n’ubushyuhe bw’isi aho gukoresha ubushyuhe bw’isi.

Ubushyuhe bwagaragaye

Ingingo zingenzi: Ubushyuhe bwimyaka 2000 ishize na ibikoresho byubushyuhe byanditse

Kwiyongera k'ubushyuhe ku isi mu myaka 2000 ishize ukoresheje amakuru ya porokisi avuye ku mpeta y'ibiti, amakorali, hamwe na ice cores mu bururu. Amakuru yakurikiranwe mu buryo butaziguye ari umutuku.

Imibare myinshi yigenga yerekana ibikoresho byerekana ko ikirere gishyuha. Imyaka icumi ya 2011–2020 yashyutswe ku kigereranyo cya 1.09 ° C [0,95–1,20 ° C] ugereranije n’ibanze byabanjirije inganda (1850–1900). Ubushyuhe bwo hejuru buzamuka kuri 0.2 ° C mu myaka icumi, [30] hamwe na 2020 igera ku bushyuhe bwa 1,2 ° C hejuru y’inganda zabanjirije inganda. Kuva mu 1950, iminsi n'imbeho bikonje byagabanutse, kandi iminsi n'amajoro ashyushye byiyongera.

Habayeho ubushyuhe buke hagati yikinyejana cya 18 no hagati yikinyejana cya 19. Amakuru y’ikirere muri kiriya gihe aturuka ku miterere y’ikirere, nk'ibiti hamwe n’ibarafu. Inyandiko za Thermometer zatangiye gutanga amakuru ku isi hose mu 1850. [34] Uburyo bwamateka yubushyuhe no gukonja, nka Climate Animate ya Medieval hamwe nigihe gito cyibarafu, ntabwo byabaye icyarimwe mubice bitandukanye. Ubushyuhe bushobora kuba bwarageze nko mu mpera z'ikinyejana cya 20 mu turere tumwe na tumwe. Habayeho ibice byabanjirije amateka yubushyuhe bwisi, nka Paleocene - Eocene Thermal Maximum. [36] Nyamara, ubwiyongere bugezweho bwiyongera bwubushyuhe hamwe nubushyuhe bwa CO2 bwihuse cyane kuburyo ibintu bitunguranye bya geofiziki mumateka yisi bitegereye igipimo kiriho.

Ibimenyetso by'ubushyuhe buturuka ku bipimo by'ubushyuhe bwo mu kirere bishimangirwa n'ibindi byinshi byagaragaye. [38] Urugero, impinduka z’amazi karemano zarahanuwe kandi zaragaragaye, nko kwiyongera inshuro n’uburemere bw’imvura nyinshi, gushonga kwa shelegi n’ibarafu y’ubutaka, ndetse n’ubushyuhe bwo mu kirere bwiyongera. Ibimera n'ibinyabuzima nabyo bitwara muburyo bujyanye n'ubushyuhe; nk'urugero, ibimera birabya mbere mu mpeshyi. Ikindi kimenyetso cyingenzi ni ugukonjesha ikirere cyo hejuru, cyerekana ko imyuka ihumanya ikirere ifata ubushyuhe hafi yisi kandi ikayirinda gukwirakwira mu kirere.

Uturere twisi dushyushye kubiciro bitandukanye. Igishushanyo cyigenga aho imyuka ihumanya ikirere isohoka, kubera ko imyuka ikomeza igihe kirekire kuburyo ikwirakwira kwisi. Kuva mu bihe byabanjirije inganda, ubushyuhe bwo hejuru bw’ubutaka bwiyongereye hafi inshuro ebyiri n’ubushyuhe bwo hejuru ku isi. Ibyo biterwa nubushobozi bunini bwubushyuhe bwinyanja, kandi kubera ko inyanja itakaza ubushyuhe bwinshi mukumuka. Ingufu z’ubushyuhe muri gahunda y’ikirere ku isi ziyongereye hamwe n’ikiruhuko gito kuva byibura mu 1970, kandi hejuru ya 90% y’izo mbaraga ziyongereye zabitswe mu nyanja. [45] Ahasigaye hashyushye ikirere, ushonga urubura, kandi ususurutsa imigabane.

Amajyaruguru y'Amajyaruguru na Pole y'Amajyaruguru hashyushye cyane kurusha Pole y'Amajyepfo n'Amajyepfo y'isi. Amajyaruguru y’Amajyaruguru ntabwo afite ubutaka bwinshi gusa, ahubwo afite ibihe byinshi byurubura hamwe nubura bwinyanja. Mugihe iyi mibumbe ihindagurika yerekana urumuri rwinshi rukaba umwijima nyuma yuko urubura rumaze gushonga, batangira gukuramo ubushyuhe bwinshi. Ububiko bwa karubone bwaho bwirabura kuri shelegi na barafu nabyo bigira uruhare mubushyuhe bwa Arctique. Ubushyuhe bwa Arctique buriyongera inshuro zirenga ebyiri igipimo cy’isi yose. Gushonga kw'ibarafu n'ibibarafu muri Arctique bihagarika urujya n'uruza rw'inyanja, harimo n'umugezi wa Kigobe wagabanutse, bikomeza guhindura ikirere.

Inshingano yubushyuhe bwa vuba

Ingingo nyamukuru: Uruhare rw’imihindagurikire y’ikirere

Abatwara imihindagurikire y’ikirere kuva 1850–1900 kugeza 2010–2019. Nta ntererano ihambaye yatanzwe kuva imbere imbere cyangwa abashoferi b'izuba n'ibirunga.

Imiterere y’ikirere ihura n’ibihe bitandukanye byonyine bishobora kumara imyaka (nka El Niño - Oscillation y’Amajyepfo (ENSO)), imyaka mirongo cyangwa ibinyejana. Izindi mpinduka ziterwa n'ubusumbane bw'ingufu "ziva hanze" kuri gahunda y'ikirere, ariko ntabwo buri gihe zituruka ku isi. Ingero z’agahato ko hanze zirimo impinduka ziterwa nubushyuhe bwa gaze ya parike, urumuri rwizuba, kuruka kwikirunga, hamwe nuburyo butandukanye mubuzenguruka isi izenguruka izuba. [54]

Kugirango hamenyekane uruhare rwabantu mu mihindagurikire y’ikirere, hagomba kuvaho imihindagurikire y’ikirere imbere n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Uburyo bw'ingenzi ni ukumenya "igikumwe" kidasanzwe ku mpamvu zose zishobora gutera, hanyuma ugereranye ibyo bitoki hamwe nuburyo bugaragara bw’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Kurugero, guhatira izuba birashobora kuvaho nkimpamvu ikomeye. Urutoki rwacyo rwaba rushyushye mu kirere cyose. Nyamara, ikirere cyo hasi gusa cyarashyushye, gihuza na parike ya parike. Uruhare rw’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ruheruka kwerekana ko umushoferi nyamukuru azamura imyuka ihumanya ikirere, hamwe na aerosole igira ingaruka mbi.

Imyuka ya parike

Ingingo z'ingenzi: Gazi ya parike, ibyuka bihumanya ikirere, ingaruka za parike, na karuboni ya karuboni mu kirere cy'isi Imyunyungugu ya CO2 mu myaka 800.000 ishize nkuko bipimye ku rubura rwa barafu [58] [59] [60] [61] (ubururu / icyatsi) kandi mu buryo butaziguye [62] (umukara)

Imyuka ya parike ibonerana ku zuba, bityo ikayemerera kunyura mu kirere kugira ngo ishyushya isi. Isi irabagirana nkubushyuhe, kandi imyuka ya parike ikurura igice cyayo. Uku kwinjiza bidindiza umuvuduko ubushyuhe bwinjira mu kirere, ugafata ubushyuhe hafi y’isi kandi ukabushuha mu gihe runaka. Mbere y’Impinduramatwara y’inganda, ubwinshi bwa gaze ya parike yatumaga ikirere cyegereye hejuru yubushyuhe bugera kuri 33 ° C kurenza uko byari kugenda iyo badahari. [64] Mugihe imyuka y'amazi (~ 50%) n'ibicu (~ 25%) aribyo bigira uruhare runini mu ngaruka za parike, byiyongera nkibikorwa byubushyuhe bityo bikaba ibisubizo. Ku rundi ruhande, imyuka ya gaze nka CO2 (~ 20%), ozone tropospheric, [66] CFCs na okiside ya nitrous ntabwo iterwa n'ubushyuhe, bityo rero ni imbaraga zo hanze. [67]

Ibikorwa byabantu kuva Revolisiyo yinganda, cyane cyane gukuramo no gutwika ibicanwa biva mu kirere (amakara, peteroli, na gaze gasanzwe), [68] byongereye imyuka ya parike mu kirere, bivamo ubusumbane bukabije. Muri 2019, ingufu za CO2 na metani zariyongereyeho hafi 48% na 160%, kuva mu 1750. [69] Izi nzego za CO2 ziri hejuru kurenza uko zigeze mugihe cyimyaka miriyoni 2 ishize. Ihuriro rya metani riri hejuru cyane kuruta uko byari bimeze mu myaka 800.000 ishize.

Umushinga wa Carbone Global werekana uburyo kwiyongera kuri CO2 kuva 1880 byatewe ninkomoko zitandukanye zigenda ziyongera.

Ibyuka bihumanya ikirere ku isi hose muri 2019 byari bihwanye na toni miliyari 59 za CO2. Muri ibyo byuka bihumanya, 75% ni CO2, 18% ni metani, 4% ni oxyde ya nitrous, naho 2% ni gaze ya fluor. Imyuka ya CO2 ituruka ahanini ku gutwika ibicanwa kugira ngo bitange ingufu mu gutwara, gukora, gushyushya, n'amashanyarazi. Ibindi byuka bihumanya ikirere biva mu gutema amashyamba no mu nganda, birimo CO2 yarekuwe n’imiti yo gukora sima, ibyuma, aluminium, n’ifumbire. Ibyuka bya metani biva mu bworozi, ifumbire, guhinga umuceri, imyanda, amazi mabi, no gucukura amakara, ndetse no gucukura peteroli na gaze. Umwuka wa azote uva ahanini muri mikorobe yangirika y'ifumbire.

N’ubwo uruhare rwo gutema amashyamba mu byuka bihumanya ikirere, ubutaka bw’isi, cyane cyane amashyamba yabwo, bukomeje kuba imyanda ikomeye ya CO2. Uburyo bwo kurohama ku butaka, nko gutunganya karubone mu butaka na fotosintezeza, bikuraho hafi 29% by’imyuka ihumanya ikirere ku isi ku isi. Inyanja nayo ikora nka karubone ikomeye ikoresheje inzira ebyiri. Ubwa mbere, CO2 ishonga mumazi yo hejuru. Nyuma yaho, kuzenguruka kwinyanja gukwirakwira mu nyanja imbere, aho ikusanyiriza hamwe igihe kimwe murwego rwa karubone. Mu myaka mirongo ibiri iheze, inyanja y'isi imaze kwinjiza 20 gushika 30% ya CO2 yasohotse.

Indege n'ibicu

Guhumanya ikirere, mu buryo bwa aerosole, bigira ingaruka ku kirere ku rugero runini. Indege ikwirakwiza kandi ikurura imirasire y'izuba. Kuva mu 1961 kugeza 1990, kugabanuka gahoro gahoro k'izuba ryageze ku isi byagaragaye. Iyi phenomenon izwi cyane ku izina rya dimming ku isi, [78] kandi iterwa na aerosole iterwa n'umukungugu, umwanda ndetse no gutwika ibinyabuzima na lisansi. [79] [80] [81] [82]

Aerosole nayo igira ingaruka zitaziguye ku ngengo yimirasire yisi. Sulfate aerosole ikora nka nuclei yibicu kandi biganisha ku bicu bifite byinshi kandi bito bitonyanga. Ibyo bicu byerekana imirasire yizuba neza kuruta ibicu bifite ibitonyanga bike kandi binini. Bigabanya kandi imikurire yimvura, ituma ibicu birushaho kumurika izuba ryinjira. Ingaruka zitaziguye za aerosole nizo zidashidikanywaho cyane mu guhatira imirasire.

Mugihe ubusanzwe aerosole igabanya ubushyuhe bwisi yose yerekana urumuri rwizuba, karubone yumukara muri soot igwa kuri shelegi cyangwa urubura irashobora kugira uruhare mubushyuhe bwisi. Ntabwo ibyo byongera gusa urumuri rwizuba, binongera gushonga no kuzamuka kwinyanja. Kugabanya ububiko bushya bwa karubone muri Arctique bishobora kugabanya ubushyuhe bw’isi kuri 0.2 ° C muri 2050. [89]

Ubutaka burahinduka

Ikigereranyo cyo gutakaza ibiti bitwikiriye isi cyikubye hafi kabiri kuva 2001, kugeza igihombo cyumwaka cyegereye agace kangana n’Ubutaliyani.

Abantu bahindura isi cyane cyane kugirango bahinge ubutaka bwubuhinzi. Muri iki gihe, ubuhinzi bufata 34% by'ubutaka bw'isi, mu gihe 26% ari amashyamba, naho 30% akaba adashobora guturwa (ibibarafu, ubutayu, n'ibindi.). Umubare w'ubutaka bw'amashyamba ukomeje kugabanuka, akaba ari yo mpinduka nyamukuru y'imikoreshereze y'ubutaka itera ubushyuhe ku isi.

gutema amashyamba birekura CO2 ikubiye mu biti iyo byangiritse, byongeye kandi birinda ibyo biti kwinjiza CO2 nyinshi mu gihe kiri imbere. Impamvu nyamukuru zitera amashyamba ni: guhindura imikoreshereze yubutaka buhoraho kuva mumashyamba kugera kubutaka bwubuhinzi butanga umusaruro nkinka n amavuta yintoki (27%), gutema ibiti byamashyamba / amashyamba (26%), guhinga mugihe gito (24%) , n'umuriro (23%).

Ubwoko bwibimera mukarere bigira ingaruka kubushyuhe bwaho. Ihindura uko urumuri rw'izuba rugaruka mu kirere (albedo), n'ubushyuhe butakara bitewe no guhumeka. Kurugero, impinduka ziva mumashyamba yijimye zijya mubyatsi bituma ubuso bworoha, bigatuma bugaragaza urumuri rwizuba. Gutema amashyamba birashobora kandi kugira ingaruka kubushyuhe muguhindura irekurwa ryimiti igabanya ibicu, no guhindura imiterere yumuyaga. Mu turere dushyuha no mu bushyuhe ingaruka nziza ni ugutanga ubushyuhe bugaragara, mu gihe ku burebure bwegereye inkingi inyungu ya albedo (kuko ishyamba risimburwa n’urubura) biganisha ku gukonja. [94] Ku isi hose, izo ngaruka zivugwa ko zatumye hakonja gato, byiganjemo kwiyongera kwa albedo.

Ibikorwa by'izuba n'ibirunga

Andi makuru: Igikorwa cyizuba nikirere

Nkuko izuba ariryo soko ryambere ryingufu zisi, impinduka zumucyo zizuba zigira ingaruka kumiterere yikirere. Imirasire y'izuba yapimwe na satelite, [96] kandi ibipimo bitaziguye biraboneka guhera mu ntangiriro ya 1600. Nta cyerekezo cyigeze kigaragara mu bwinshi bw'ingufu z'izuba zigera ku isi.

Kuruka kw'ibirunga biturika byerekana imbaraga nini nini mu bihe by'inganda. Iyo kuruka gukomeye bihagije (hamwe na dioxyde de sulfure igera kuri stratosifera), urumuri rwizuba rushobora guhagarikwa igice mumyaka ibiri. Ikimenyetso cy'ubushyuhe kimara hafi kabiri. Mu gihe cy’inganda, ibikorwa by’ibirunga byagize ingaruka zitari nke ku bijyanye n’ubushyuhe bw’isi. Muri iki gihe imyuka y’ibirunga ya CO2 ihwanye na munsi ya 1% y’imyuka ihumanya ikirere ya CO2.

Imiterere y’ikirere ntishobora kubyara ubushyuhe bwihuse bwagaragaye mu myaka ya vuba aha iyo urebye gusa itandukaniro ry’izuba n’ibikorwa by’ibirunga. Ibindi bimenyetso byerekana imyuka ihumanya ikirere itera ubushyuhe bukabije ku isi biva mu bipimo byerekana ubushyuhe bw’ikirere cyo hasi (troposse), hamwe no gukonjesha ikirere cyo hejuru (stratosifera). [101] Niba imirasire y'izuba ari yo nyirabayazana w'ubushyuhe bwagaragaye, troposse na stratosifike byombi byari gushyuha.

Ibitekerezo by’imihindagurikire y’ibihe

Ingingo z'ingenzi: Ibitekerezo by’imihindagurikire y’ibihe hamwe n’imihindagurikire y’ibihe

Urubura rwo mu nyanja rugaragaza 50% kugeza 70% by'izuba ryinjira, mu gihe inyanja, yijimye, igaragaza 6% gusa. Mugihe agace k'urubura rwo mu nyanja gashonga kandi kigashyira ahagaragara inyanja nyinshi, ubushyuhe bwinshi bwinjizwa ninyanja, bikazamura ubushyuhe bugashonga urubura rwinshi. Iyi nzira ni ibitekerezo byiza.

Igisubizo cy’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ku gahato ka mbere gihindurwa n’ibisubizo: byongerewe no "kwikomeza" cyangwa "ibyiza" kandi bigabanywa no "kuringaniza" cyangwa "ibibi". [103] Ibyingenzi byingenzi bishimangira ibitekerezo ni ibitekerezo byamazi yumuyaga, ibitekerezo bya ice-albedo, hamwe ningaruka nziza yibicu. [104] [105] Uburyo bwibanze bwo kuringaniza ni ubukonje bukabije, kuko ubuso bwisi butanga ubushyuhe bwinshi mukirere bitewe nubushyuhe bwiyongera. Usibye kugabanuka k'ubushyuhe, hari n'ibisubizwa mu cyerekezo cya karubone, nk'ifumbire mvaruganda ya CO2 ku mikurire y'ibihingwa. Kudashidikanya ku bisubizo ni yo mpamvu nyamukuru ituma imiterere y’ikirere itandukanye yerekana ubushyuhe butandukanye bw’ubushyuhe ku mubare runaka w’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere.

Iyo umwuka ushyushye, irashobora gufata ubuhehere bwinshi. Umwuka w’amazi, nka gaze ya parike ikomeye, ifata ubushyuhe mu kirere. Niba igicu cyiyongereye, urumuri rwizuba ruzagaruka mumwanya, gukonjesha umubumbe. Niba ibicu bimaze kuba binini kandi byoroheje, bikora nka insuliranteri, byerekana ubushyuhe buva hepfo inyuma bikamanuka kandi bigashyushya isi. Ingaruka yibicu nisoko nini yo gutanga ibitekerezo bidashidikanywaho.

Ikindi gitekerezo cyingenzi ni ukugabanya igifuniko cya shelegi hamwe nubura bwinyanja muri Arctique, bigabanya kugaragariza isi. [111] Ingufu nyinshi z'izuba ubu zinjiye muri utwo turere, bigira uruhare mu kongera ubushyuhe bwa Arctique. Kwiyongera kwa Arctique na byo gushonga permafrost, irekura metani na CO2 mu kirere. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe irashobora kandi gutuma metani irekurwa mu bishanga, sisitemu yo mu nyanja, hamwe n’amazi meza. Muri rusange, ibisubizo by’ikirere biteganijwe ko bizagenda neza.

Hafi ya kimwe cya kabiri cy’ibyuka bihumanya abantu biterwa na CO2 byatewe n’ibimera byo ku butaka ndetse n’inyanja. Ku butaka, kuzamura CO2 hamwe nigihe kinini cyo gukura byatumye imikurire ikura. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe yongera amapfa nubushyuhe bukabije bubuza imikurire yibihingwa, bigatuma tuutazi neza niba iyi karuboni izakomeza kwiyongera mu bihe biri imbere. Ubutaka burimo karubone nyinshi kandi burashobora kurekura bimwe iyo bishyushye. Nkuko CO2 nubushyuhe bwinshi byinjizwa ninyanja, irahindura aside, ihindagurika ryayo kandi phytoplankton ifata karubone nkeya, bikagabanya umuvuduko inyanja ikuramo karubone yo mu kirere. [119] Muri rusange, hejuru ya CO2 hejuru yisi Isi izakuramo igice cyagabanije imyuka ihumanya ikirere.

Icyitegererezo

Andi makuru: Ingengo yimari ya karubone, imiterere yikirere, hamwe n’imihindagurikire y’ibihe

Biteganijwe ko ubushyuhe bwubuso bwisi burahinduka ugereranije na 1850–1900, bushingiye kuri CMIP6-moderi nyinshi bisobanura impinduka

Icyitegererezo cy’ikirere cyerekana uburyo bw’umubiri, imiti n’ibinyabuzima bigira ingaruka ku miterere y’ikirere. Icyitegererezo kandi kirimo inzira karemano nkimpinduka zuzenguruka isi, impinduka zamateka mubikorwa byizuba, hamwe no guhatira ibirunga. Icyitegererezo gikoreshwa mukugereranya urugero rwubushyuhe bwoherezwa mu kirere bizazatera mugihe hagaragaye imbaraga z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, [123] hagati y'ubutaka n'ikirere. [125]

Imyifatire ifatika yicyitegererezo igeragezwa no gusuzuma ubushobozi bwabo bwo kwigana ikirere cya none cyangwa cyahise. Ingero zashize zasuzuguye igipimo cyo kugabanuka kwa Arctique [127] kandi ntizasuzuguye igipimo cy’imvura yiyongera. Ubwiyongere bw'inyanja kuva mu 1990 ntibwigeze busuzumwa mu buryo bwa kera, ariko imiterere ya vuba iremeranya neza n’ubushakashatsi. Ishami ry’igihugu ry’Amerika ryasohoye mu mwaka wa 2017 rivuga ko "imiterere y’ikirere ishobora kuba idaha agaciro cyangwa ikabura uburyo bwo gutanga ibitekerezo".

Igice kinini cyimiterere yikirere cyongera ibintu byabaturage muburyo bworoshye bwikirere. Izi ngero zigereranya uburyo abaturage, ubwiyongere bw’ubukungu, n’imikoreshereze y’ingufu bigira ingaruka - no gukorana n’ikirere cy’umubiri. Hamwe naya makuru, izi moderi zirashobora gutanga ibintu byerekana ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. Ibi noneho bikoreshwa nkigitekerezo cyo kwerekana imiterere yimiterere yimiterere yikirere hamwe nicyitegererezo cya karubone kugirango hamenyekane uburyo ikirere cyo mu kirere cya gaze ya parike ishobora guhinduka mugihe kizaza. [131] Ukurikije imibereho yubukungu nubukungu bworoheje, moderi zitanga ingufu za CO2 zo mu kirere ziri hagati ya 380 na 1400 ppm. [133]

Raporo y’isuzuma rya gatandatu rya IPCC ivuga ko ubushyuhe bw’isi bushobora kugera kuri 1.0 ° C kugeza kuri 1.8 ° C mu mpera z'ikinyejana cya 21 bitewe n’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. Hagati aho ubushyuhe bw’isi bugera kuri 2,1 ° C kugeza kuri 3,5 ° C, na 3.3 ° C kugeza kuri 5.7 ° C munsi y’ikirere cyinshi cyane. [134] Ibiteganijwe bishingiye ku cyitegererezo cy’ikirere hamwe no kureba.

Ingengo y’imari ya karubone isigaye igenwa no kwerekana icyerekezo cya karubone hamwe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere kuri gaze ya parike. Nk’uko IPCC ibivuga, ubushyuhe bw’isi burashobora kubikwa munsi ya 1.5 ° C hamwe na bibiri bya gatatu niba imyuka ihumanya nyuma ya 2018 itarenze 420 cyangwa 570 gigatonnes ya CO2. Ibi bihuye nimyaka 10 kugeza 13 yimyuka ihumanya ikirere. Hano hari byinshi bidashidikanywaho kubyerekeye ingengo yimari. Kurugero, irashobora kuba gigatonnes 100 ya CO2 ntoya bitewe na metani irekurwa na permafrost nigishanga. [137] Icyakora, biragaragara ko ibikomoka kuri peteroli y’ibinyabuzima ari byinshi ku buryo ibura ridashobora gushingirwaho mu kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere mu kinyejana cya 21. [138]

Ingaruka

Ingingo nyamukuru: Ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere

Raporo ya gatandatu ya IPCC Isuzuma Raporo ihinduka mubushyuhe bwubutaka bushobora guhungabanya ubuhinzi nibidukikije. Kugabanuka k'ubutaka bwubutaka kubwo gutandukana bisanzwe bivuze ko impuzandengo yubutaka bwubutaka buzahuza numwaka wa cyenda wumye hagati ya 1850 na 1900 aho hantu.

Ingaruka ku bidukikije

Andi makuru: Ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ku nyanja n’ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ku cyerekezo cy’amazi

Ingaruka z’ibidukikije z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ni nini kandi igera kure, bigira ingaruka ku nyanja, urubura, n’ikirere. Impinduka zirashobora kubaho buhoro buhoro cyangwa vuba. Ibimenyetso kuri izo ngaruka biva mu kwiga imihindagurikire y’ikirere mu bihe byashize, bivuye ku kwerekana imiterere, no mu bushakashatsi bugezweho. Kuva mu myaka ya za 1950, amapfa n'ubushyuhe byagaragaye icyarimwe hamwe no kwiyongera inshuro. Ibihe bitose cyangwa byumye mugihe cyimvura cyiyongereye mubuhinde no muri Aziya yuburasirazuba. Igipimo cy’imvura n’ubukomezi bwa serwakira na serwakira birashoboka ko byiyongera, [142] kandi n’uburinganire bw’akarere bushobora kwaguka poleward bitewe n’ubushyuhe bw’ikirere. [143] Inshuro za serwakira zo mu turere dushyuha ntiziyongereye bitewe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere.

Amateka y’inyanja yongeye kwiyubaka hamwe n’ibiteganijwe kugera kuri 2100 byatangajwe muri 2017 na Porogaramu ishinzwe ubushakashatsi ku isi muri Amerika [145]

Urwego rw'inyanja ku isi ruzamuka bitewe n'ingaruka zo gushonga kw'ibarafu, gushonga kw'ibarafu muri Greenland na Antaragitika, no kwaguka k'ubushyuhe. Hagati ya 1993 na 2020, izamuka ryiyongereye mugihe, ugereranije 3,3 ± 0.3 mm ku mwaka. [146] Mu kinyejana cya 21, imishinga ya IPCC ivuga ko mu kirere cyinshi cyane ikirere gishobora kuzamuka kuri cm 61-110. Ubwiyongere bw'ubushyuhe bwo mu nyanja burimo gutesha agaciro kandi bugatera ubwoba ko hazacukurwa ahantu h'ibarafu ya Antaragitika, hashobora kubaho gushonga cyane ku rupapuro rwa barafu [148] kandi birashoboka ko izamuka rya metero 2 z'inyanja ryiyongera 2100 bitewe n’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. [149]

Imihindagurikire y’ibihe yatumye imyaka ibarirwa muri za mirongo igabanuka kandi igabanuka ku rubura rwo mu nyanja ya Arctique. Mu gihe biteganijwe ko icyi kitagira urubura kizaba gake kuri dogere 1.5 ° C z'ubushyuhe, biteganijwe ko bizaba rimwe mu myaka itatu kugeza ku icumi ku bushyuhe bwa 2 ° C. [151] Ubushyuhe bwo mu kirere bwa CO2 bwatumye habaho impinduka muri chimie yo mu nyanja. Ubwiyongere bwa CO2 yashonze butera inyanja aside. Byongeye kandi, umwuka wa ogisijeni uragabanuka kubera ko ogisijeni idashonga mu mazi ashyushye. Uturere twapfuye mu nyanja, uturere dufite ogisijeni nkeya, nazo ziraguka. [154]

Gutanga amanota n'ingaruka z'igihe kirekire

Impamyabumenyi nini y’ubushyuhe bukabije ku isi byongera ibyago byo kunyura muri 'tipping point' - inzitizi zirenze izo ngaruka zimwe na zimwe zidashobora kwirindwa nubwo ubushyuhe bwagabanutse. [155] [156] Urugero ni ugusenyuka kw'ibarafu ya Antaragitika y’iburengerazuba na Greenland, aho ubushyuhe bwazamutse bwa 1,5 kugeza kuri 2 ° C bushobora gutuma amabuye ashonga, nubwo igihe cyo gushonga kitazwi kandi biterwa n'ubushyuhe buzaza. [157] [158] ] Impinduka nini nini zishobora kubaho mugihe gito, nko guhagarika imigezi imwe nimwe yinyanja nka Atlantike Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). [159] Ingingo zitanga inama zirashobora kandi kwangirika bidasubirwaho kwangiza ibidukikije nkibiti byamashyamba ya Amazone hamwe nubutayu bwa korali.

Ingaruka ndende z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ku nyanja zirimo gukomeza gushonga urubura, ubushyuhe bw’inyanja, izamuka ry’inyanja, hamwe na aside aside yo mu nyanja. Mugihe cyibinyejana kugeza mu binyejana byinshi, ubunini bwimihindagurikire y’ikirere buzagenwa cyane cyane n’imyuka ihumanya ikirere ya CO2. Ibi biterwa na CO2 igihe kirekire cyo mu kirere. [162] Kwinjira mu nyanja ya CO2 biratinda bihagije ku buryo aside yo mu nyanja izakomeza imyaka ibihumbi kugeza ku bihumbi. Bivugwa ko ibyo byuka byongereye igihe cy’ibihe bitandukanye byibuze imyaka 100.000. Ubwiyongere bw'inyanja buzakomeza mu binyejana byinshi, bivugwa ko izamuka rya metero 2,3 kuri dogere selisiyusi (4.2 ft / ° F) nyuma yimyaka 2000. [165]

Kamere n'ibinyabuzima

Andi makuru: Ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ku nyanja n’imihindagurikire y’ibihe hamwe n’ibinyabuzima

Ubushyuhe bwa vuba bwatumye amoko menshi yo ku isi n’amazi meza ya poleward yerekeza ku butumburuke. [166] Urwego rwo hejuru rwo mu kirere CO2 hamwe nigihe kinini cyo gukura byatumye habaho icyatsi kibisi. Nyamara, ubushyuhe n’amapfa byagabanije umusaruro w’ibidukikije mu turere tumwe na tumwe. Impirimbanyi zizaza zizo ngaruka zinyuranye ntizisobanutse. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe yagize uruhare mu kwagura ahantu humye h’ikirere, nko kwagura ubutayu muri subtropike. Ingano n'umuvuduko w'ubushyuhe bukabije ku isi birahindura impinduka zitunguranye mu bidukikije. [169] Muri rusange, biteganijwe ko imihindagurikire y’ikirere izavamo amoko menshi.

Inyanja yashyushye gahoro gahoro kurusha ubutaka, ariko ibimera n’inyamaswa zo mu nyanja bimukiye mu nkingi zikonje cyane kuruta amoko yo ku butaka. Kimwe no ku butaka, ubushyuhe bwo mu nyanja bugaragara cyane kubera imihindagurikire y’ikirere, bikangiza ibinyabuzima byinshi nka korali, kelp, n’inyoni zo mu nyanja. Acide acide yo mu nyanja ituma bigora ibinyabuzima byo mu nyanja nka mussele, barnacle na korali kubyara ibishishwa na skeleti; n'ubushyuhe bwogeje amabuye ya korali. [173] Indabyo mbi ya algal yongerewe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere hamwe na eutrophasi igabanya urugero rwa ogisijeni, bigahungabanya imiyoboro y’ibiribwa kandi bigatakaza ubuzima bw’inyanja. Ibinyabuzima byo ku nkombe birahangayitse cyane. Hafi ya kimwe cya kabiri cy’ibishanga ku isi byarazimiye kubera imihindagurikire y’ikirere n’izindi ngaruka z’abantu.

Imihindagurikire y’ibihe igira ingaruka ku bidukikije

Amazi yo mumazi ya korali ishami ryera ryera

Isenyuka ry’ibidukikije. Korali ya korali ituruka kumyuka yubushyuhe yangije inyanja nini kandi ibangamira amabuye ya korali kwisi yose.

Ifoto ya nimugoroba mucyaro. Skyline mumisozi iri hejuru yaka itukura kuva mumuriro.

Ikirere gikabije. Uruzuba hamwe nubushuhe bukabije bwarushijeho gukomera muri 2020 muri Ositaraliya.

Icyatsi kibisi gihagarikwa ninkovu nini yuzuye ibyondo aho ubutaka bwagabanutse.

Ubushyuhe bwa Arctique. Permafrost yonona ibikorwa remezo no kurekura metani, gaze ya parike.

Ikidubu cyacitse intege gihagaze hejuru y ibisigazwa byurubura rushonga.

Kurimbuka. Inyamaswa nyinshi zo mu majyaruguru zishingiye ku rubura rwo mu nyanja, zagiye zicika muri Arctique ishyuha.

Ifoto yikibanza kinini cyamashyamba. Ibiti byatsi bivanze nibiti binini byangiritse cyangwa byapfuye bihinduka ibara ry'umuyugubwe-umutuku n'umutuku.

Gukwirakwiza udukoko. Igihe cy'imvura cyoroheje cyemerera inyenzi nyinshi zo kubaho bikwica amashyamba manini. [179]

Abantu

Ingingo nyamukuru: Ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere

Andi makuru: Ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ku buzima bw’abantu, Umutekano w’ikirere, Ubukungu bw’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, n’ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ku buhinzi

Ikirere gikabije kizagenda kigaragara cyane uko isi ishyuha.

Ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere zigira ingaruka ku bantu ahantu hose ku isi. Ingaruka zirashobora kugaragara ku migabane yose no mu turere tw’inyanja, [181] hamwe n’uburinganire buke, utaratera imbere cyane uhura n’akaga gakomeye. [182] Ubushuhe bukomeje kugira “ingaruka zikomeye, zikwirakwira kandi zidasubirwaho” ku bantu no ku bidukikije. Ingaruka zitangwa ku buryo butangana, ariko muri rusange ni nyinshi ku bantu batishoboye mu bihugu bikiri mu nzira y'amajyambere kandi byateye imbere.

Ibiryo n'ubuzima

OMS yavuze ko imihindagurikire y’ikirere ari yo ihungabanya ubuzima bw’isi yose mu kinyejana cya 21. [185] Ikirere gikabije gitera gukomeretsa no gutakaza ubuzima, [186] no kunanirwa kw'ibihingwa ku mirire mibi. Indwara zitandukanye zandura zandura mu buryo bworoshye mu gihe cy'ubushyuhe, nka feri ya dengue na malariya. [188] Abana bato ni bo bibasirwa cyane no kubura ibiryo. Abana ndetse n'abantu bakuru bakunze kwibasirwa n'ubushyuhe bukabije. Ishami ry'Umuryango w'Abibumbye ryita ku Buzima (OMS) ryagereranije ko hagati ya 2030 na 2050, imihindagurikire y’ikirere yatera impfu zigera ku 250.000 ku mwaka. Basuzumye impfu ziterwa n'ubushyuhe ku bageze mu zabukuru, kwiyongera kw'impiswi, malariya, dengue, umwuzure wo ku nkombe, n'imirire mibi mu bwana. Biteganijwe ko buri mwaka hapfa abantu barenga 500.000 bapfa bakuze bitewe no kugabanuka kw'ibiribwa ndetse n'ubuziranenge. Kugeza mu 2100, 50% kugeza kuri 75% by'abatuye isi barashobora guhura n’ikirere cyangiza ubuzima bitewe n’ingaruka ziterwa n’ubushyuhe bukabije n’ubushuhe.

Imihindagurikire y’ibihe igira ingaruka ku kwihaza mu biribwa. Byatumye igabanuka ry'umusaruro w'ibigori, ingano, na soya hagati ya 1981 na 2010. [193] Ubushyuhe bw'ejo hazaza bushobora kurushaho kugabanya umusaruro w'isi ku bihingwa bikomeye. [194] Umusaruro w’ibihingwa ushobora kuzagira ingaruka mbi mu bihugu byo mu burebure buke, mu gihe ingaruka zo mu majyaruguru zishobora kuba nziza cyangwa mbi. Abantu bagera kuri miliyoni 183 biyongera ku isi, cyane cyane abafite amikoro make, bafite ibyago byo gusonza kubera izo ngaruka. [196] Imihindagurikire y’ibihe nayo igira ingaruka ku baturage b’amafi. Kw'isi yose, bike bizoboneka kuroba. [197] Uturere dushingiye ku mazi y’ibarafu, uturere tumaze gukama, ndetse n’ibirwa bito bifite ibyago byinshi byo guhangayikishwa n’amazi bitewe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere.

Imibereho

Ibyangiritse mu bukungu bitewe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere birashobora kuba bikomeye kandi hari amahirwe y’ingaruka mbi. [199] Imihindagurikire y’ibihe ishobora kuba imaze kongera ubusumbane mu bukungu ku isi, kandi biteganijwe ko izakomeza. Ingaruka nyinshi ziteganijwe muri Afurika yo munsi y'Ubutayu bwa Sahara, aho abaturage benshi baho batunzwe n'umutungo kamere n'ubuhinzi [201], na Aziya y'Amajyepfo-Uburasirazuba. [202] Banki y'isi ivuga ko imihindagurikire y’ikirere ishobora gutuma abantu barenga miliyoni 120 mu bukene mu 2030. [203]

Ubusumbane buriho bushingiye ku butunzi n'imibereho myiza bwarushijeho kwiyongera kubera imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Ingorane zikomeye mu kugabanya, guhuza n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere no guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere zihura n’abantu bahejejwe inyuma badafite ubushobozi buke ku mutungo. [205] [201] Abasangwabutaka, batunzwe n'ubutaka bwabo ndetse n'ibidukikije, bazahura n'ingaruka z'imibereho yabo n'imibereho yabo bitewe n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere. [206] Impuguke zatanzwe n’impuguke zanzuye ko uruhare rw’imihindagurikire y’ikirere mu ntambara yitwaje intwaro rwabaye ruto ugereranije n’ubusumbane bw’imibereho n’ubukungu n’ubushobozi bwa Leta. [207]

Ibirwa biri hasi hamwe n’abaturage bo ku nkombe babangamiwe n’izamuka ry’inyanja, bigatuma imyuzure ikunze kugaragara. Rimwe na rimwe, ubutaka bwatakaye ku nyanja burundu. Ibi bishobora gutera ubwenegihugu ku bantu bo mu bihugu birwa, nka Malidiya na Tuvalu. [209] Mu turere tumwe na tumwe, izamuka ry’ubushyuhe n’ubushuhe birashobora kuba bibi cyane ku buryo abantu batabimenyera. Hamwe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ikabije, icyitegererezo cyerekana ko kimwe cya gatatu cy’ikiremwamuntu gishobora gutura mu bihe bishyushye kandi bidashobora guturwa, kimwe n’ikirere kiriho ubu kiboneka muri Sahara. [211] Izi ngingo zirashobora kwimuka kwimuka kubidukikije, haba mubihugu ndetse no mubihugu. Abantu benshi biteganijwe ko bazimurwa kubera izamuka ry’inyanja, ikirere gikabije n’amakimbirane biturutse ku guhatanira kongera umutungo kamere. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe irashobora kandi kongera intege nke, biganisha ku "baturage bafashwe" badashobora kwimuka kubera kubura amikoro. [212]

Imihindagurikire y’ibihe igira ingaruka ku bantu

Kwimuka kw'ibidukikije. Imvura idasanzwe iganisha ku butayu bwangiza ubuhinzi kandi bushobora kwimura abaturage. Yerekanwa: Telly, Mali (2008). [213]

Impinduka mu buhinzi. Amapfa, kuzamuka kwubushyuhe, nikirere gikabije bigira ingaruka mbi mubuhinzi. Yerekanwa: Texas, Amerika (2013). [214]

Impinduka mu buhinzi. Amapfa, ubushyuhe bwiyongera, nikirere gikabije bigira ingaruka mbi mubuhinzi. Yerekanwa: Texas, Amerika (2013).

Umwuzure w'amazi. Ubwiyongere bw'inyanja bwongera imyuzure mu turere two ku nkombe z'inyanja. Yerekanwa: Venise, Ubutaliyani (2004). [215]

Kwiyongera k'umuyaga. Bangaladeshi nyuma y’umuyaga witwa Sidr (2007) ni urugero rw’umwuzure w’ibiza uturutse ku mvura yiyongereye.

Ubushyuhe bukabije. Ibintu nka Kamena 2019 ubushyuhe bw’uburayi buragenda bwiyongera. [217]

Kugabanya no gufata ibyuka bihumanya

Ingingo nyamukuru: Kugabanya imihindagurikire y’ibihe

Ibyuka bihumanya ikirere ku isi hose, bishingiye kuri politiki n'imihigo guhera ku ya 21/11

Imihindagurikire y’ibihe irashobora kugabanywa mu kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere no kongera imyanda ikurura imyuka ihumanya ikirere. Kugirango ubushyuhe bw’isi bugabanuke kugera kuri 1.5 ° C ku isi ibyuka bihumanya ikirere bigomba kuba net-zero mu 2050, cyangwa muri 2070 bifite intego ya 2 ° C. [137] Ibi bisaba impinduka nini, zifatika ku rugero rutigeze rubaho mu mbaraga, ubutaka, imijyi, ubwikorezi, inyubako, n'inganda. [219] Gahunda y’umuryango w’abibumbye ishinzwe ibidukikije ivuga ko ibihugu bigomba kwikuba gatatu ibyo byiyemeje mu masezerano y’i Paris mu myaka icumi iri imbere kugira ngo ubushyuhe bw’isi bugere kuri 2 ° C. Urwego runini rwo kugabanuka rurasabwa kugirango intego ya 1.5 ° C igerweho. Hamwe n'imihigo yatanzwe mu masezerano guhera mu Kwakira 2021, ubushyuhe bw’isi buracyafite amahirwe ya 66% yo kugera kuri 2.7 ° C (intera: 2.2–3.2 ° C) mu mpera z'ikinyejana. Ku isi hose, kugabanya ubushyuhe bugera kuri 2 ° C bishobora kuvamo inyungu nyinshi kuruta ibiciro.

Nubwo nta nzira imwe yo kugabanya ubushyuhe bw’isi kugera kuri 1.5 cyangwa 2 ° C, [222] ibintu byinshi hamwe n’ingamba bigaragara ko kwiyongera gukomeye kw’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu hamwe n’ingamba ziyongera z’ingufu zitanga ingufu za parike zikenewe. 223] Kugabanya ingufu z’ibinyabuzima no kongera ubushobozi bw’ikwirakwizwa rya karubone, hazakenerwa kandi impinduka mu buhinzi n’amashyamba, [224] nko gukumira amashyamba no kugarura urusobe rw’ibinyabuzima hakoreshejwe amashyamba. [225]

Ubundi buryo bwo kugabanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere bufite ibyago byinshi. Ibintu bigabanya ubushyuhe bukabije ku isi kugera kuri 1.5 ° C mubisanzwe byerekana uburyo bunini bwo gukoresha karuboni ya dioxyde de carbone mu kinyejana cya 21. [226] Hariho impungenge, nubwo, gushingira cyane kuri ubwo buhanga, n'ingaruka ku bidukikije. Imicungire y'izuba (SRM) nayo ninyongera ishoboka yo kugabanya cyane imyuka ihumanya ikirere. Ariko, SRM yazamura ibibazo bikomeye byimyitwarire namategeko, kandi ingaruka ntizisobanutse neza.

Ingufu zisukuye

Ingingo nyamukuru: Ingufu zirambye hamwe nubwikorezi burambye

Amakara, peteroli na gaze karemano bikomeje kuba isoko yambere yingufu zisi nubwo ibivugururwa byatangiye kwiyongera byihuse.

Umuyaga n'izuba, Ubudage

Ingufu zisubirwamo ni urufunguzo rwo kugabanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Ibicanwa bya fosile byagize 80% by'ingufu z'isi mu 2018. Umugabane usigaye wagabanijwe hagati y’ingufu za kirimbuzi n’ibishobora kuvugururwa (harimo amashanyarazi, ingufu za bioenergy, umuyaga n’izuba n’ingufu za geothermal). [231] Uru ruvange ruteganijwe guhinduka cyane mu myaka 30 iri imbere. Imirasire y'izuba n'umuyaga wo ku nkombe ubu biri mu buryo buhendutse bwo kongerera ingufu amashanyarazi mashya ahantu henshi. [232] Ibishobora kuvugururwa byagaragazaga 75% by'amashanyarazi mashya yose yashyizweho muri 2019, hafi izuba n'umuyaga. [233] Ubundi buryo bw'ingufu zisukuye, nka kirimbuzi n'amashanyarazi, kuri ubu bifite uruhare runini mu gutanga ingufu. Ariko, iteganyagihe ryabo ryigihe kizaza risa nkaho ugereranije. [234]

Kugera kuri 2050 kutabogama kwa karubone, ingufu zishobora kuba uburyo bwambere bwo kubyara amashanyarazi, bikazamuka kugera kuri 85% cyangwa birenga muri 2050 mubihe bimwe. Ishoramari mu makara ryavaho kandi ikoreshwa ry’amakara hafi ya 2050. [235] [236]

Amashanyarazi akomoka ku masoko ashobora kuvugururwa nayo agomba kuba isoko nyamukuru yo gushyushya no gutwara. [237] Ubwikorezi burashobora kuva mumodoka ya moteri yaka imbere no kugana ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi, inzira nyabagendwa, hamwe nubwikorezi bukora (gusiganwa ku magare no kugenda). [238] Ku kohereza no kuguruka, lisansi nkeya yagabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere. Ubushuhe burashobora kuba karubone hamwe nikoranabuhanga nka pompe yubushyuhe.

Hariho inzitizi zo gukomeza kwiyongera byihuse byingufu zisukuye, harimo nibishobora kuvugururwa. Ku muyaga n'izuba, hari ibidukikije n'imikoreshereze y'ubutaka ku mishinga mishya. Umuyaga n'izuba nabyo bitanga ingufu

rimwe na rimwe hamwe nigihe gihindagurika. Ubusanzwe, ingomero za hydro zifite ibigega hamwe ninganda zisanzwe zikoreshwa mugihe umusaruro uhindagurika ari muke. Kujya imbere, ububiko bwa batiri burashobora kwagurwa, ingufu zikenewe hamwe nibitangwa birashobora guhuzwa, kandi kohereza intera ndende birashobora guhinduranya neza umusaruro ushobora kuvugururwa. [230] Bioenergy ntabwo akenshi iba idafite aho ibogamiye kandi ishobora kugira ingaruka mbi ku kwihaza mu biribwa. Ubwiyongere bw'ingufu za kirimbuzi bugabanywa n'impaka zishingiye ku myanda ya kirimbuzi, ikwirakwizwa ry'intwaro za kirimbuzi, n'impanuka. [243] Iterambere ry’amashanyarazi rigarukira ku kuba ahantu heza hateguwe, kandi imishinga mishya ikaba ihanganye n’ibibazo by’imibereho n’ibidukikije byiyongera.

Ingufu nke za karubone zitezimbere ubuzima bwabantu mukugabanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Ifite kandi inyungu mu gihe cya vuba cyo kugabanya impfu ziterwa n’ikirere, [246] zagereranijwe zigera kuri miliyoni 7 buri mwaka mu 2016. [247] Kugera ku ntego z’amasezerano y'i Paris agabanya ubushyuhe kugera kuri 2 ° C bishobora gukiza abagera kuri miliyoni muri ubwo buzima mu mwaka wa 2050, mu gihe kugabanya ubushyuhe bw’isi kugera kuri 1.5 ° C bishobora gukiza miliyoni kandi icyarimwe byongera umutekano w’ingufu no kugabanya ubukene. [248] Kuzamura ikirere cyiza kandi bifite inyungu zubukungu zishobora kuba nini kuruta ibiciro byoroheje.

Kubungabunga ingufu

Ingingo z'ingenzi: Gukoresha ingufu neza no kubungabunga ingufu

Kugabanya ingufu zikenewe ni ikindi kintu gikomeye cyo kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. Niba ingufu nke zikenewe, haribintu byoroshye guhinduka byiterambere ryingufu. Bituma kandi byoroha gucunga umuyagankuba, kandi bikagabanya iterambere ry’ibikorwa remezo byibanda cyane kuri karubone. Kwiyongera kwinshi mu ishoramari ry’ingufu bizasabwa kugera ku ntego z’ikirere, ugereranije n’urwego rw’ishoramari mu mbaraga zishobora kubaho. Impinduka nyinshi za COVID-19 zijyanye no gukoresha ingufu, ishoramari rikoresha ingufu, n’inkunga byatumye iteganyagihe ry’iyi myaka icumi rigoye kandi ridashidikanywaho.

Ingamba zo kugabanya ingufu zikenerwa ziratandukanye. Mu bwikorezi, abagenzi n'imizigo barashobora guhinduka muburyo bwiza bwo gukora ingendo nka bisi na gari ya moshi, cyangwa gukoresha ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi. Ingamba zinganda zo kugabanya ingufu zikenerwa harimo kunoza uburyo bwo gushyushya moteri na moteri, gukora ibicuruzwa bidakoresha ingufu nke, no kongera igihe cyibicuruzwa. [255] Mu rwego rw’ubwubatsi hibandwa ku gishushanyo mbonera cy’inyubako nshya, n’urwego rwo hejuru rw’ingufu zikoreshwa mu guhindura imikorere. [256] Gukoresha tekinoroji nka pompe yubushyuhe birashobora kandi kongera ingufu zubaka. [257]

Ubuhinzi n'inganda

Reba kandi: Ubuhinzi burambye na politiki y’inganda

Urebye ibyuka bihumanya bitaziguye kandi bitaziguye, inganda nizo nzego zifite uruhare runini rw’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere.

Ubuhinzi n’amashyamba bihura n’ingorabahizi eshatu zo kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere, bikarinda ko amashyamba ahinduka ku butaka bw’ubuhinzi, ndetse no kwiyongera kw’ibiribwa ku isi. [258] Igikorwa gishobora kugabanya ubuhinzi n’amashyamba ashingiye ku mashyamba bibiri bya gatatu kuva ku rwego rwa 2010. Muri byo harimo kugabanya ubwiyongere bukenewe ku biribwa n’ibindi bicuruzwa bikomoka ku buhinzi, kongera umusaruro w’ubutaka, kurinda no kugarura amashyamba, no kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere biva mu buhinzi. [259]

Ku ruhande rw'ibisabwa, igice cy'ingenzi mu kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere ni uguhindura abantu ku mafunguro ashingiye ku bimera. Kurandura umusaruro w’amatungo y’inyama n’amata byakuraho hafi 3/4 by’ibyuka bihumanya biva mu buhinzi n’ubundi buryo bukoreshwa ku butaka. Amatungo afite kandi 37% by'ubutaka butagira urubura ku isi kandi akoresha ibiryo biva kuri 12% by'ubutaka bukoreshwa mu bihingwa, gutwara amashyamba no kwangirika k'ubutaka. [262]

Umusaruro w'ibyuma na sima ushinzwe hafi 13% byangiza imyuka ya CO2. Muri izo nganda, ibikoresho byibanda cyane kuri karubone nka kokiya na lime bigira uruhare runini mu musaruro, ku buryo kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere bisaba ubushakashatsi mu bundi buryo bwa shimi. [263]

Urutonde rwa karubone

Ingingo z'ingenzi: Gukuraho karuboni ya dioxyde de carbone ikurikirana

Ibyuka byinshi byangiza imyuka ya CO2 byinjijwe n’ibiti bya karubone, harimo gukura kw'ibimera, gufata ubutaka, no gufata inyanja (Ingengo y’imari ya 2020 ya Carbone).

Imyuka ya karubone isanzwe irashobora kongererwa imbaraga kugirango ikurikirane CO2 irenze urugero rusanzwe rusanzwe. Gutema amashyamba no gutera ibiti ku butaka butari amashyamba ni bumwe mu buryo bukuze bukurikirana, nubwo bwa nyuma butera impungenge ibiribwa. [265] Abahinzi barashobora guteza imbere ikwirakwizwa rya karubone mu butaka binyuze mu bikorwa nko gukoresha ibihingwa bitwikiriye imbeho, kugabanya ubukana n’inshuro yo guhinga, no gukoresha ifumbire n’ifumbire nk’ivugurura ry’ubutaka. [266] Kugarura / kwidagadura ibishanga byo ku nkombe n’ibyatsi byo mu nyanja byongera gufata karubone mu binyabuzima (karubone yubururu). [267] Iyo karubone ifashwe mubutaka no mubintu kama nkibiti, harikibazo cyuko karubone yongeye kurekurwa mukirere nyuma binyuze mu mpinduka zikoreshwa mubutaka, umuriro, cyangwa izindi mpinduka mubidukikije. [268]

Iyo umusaruro w'ingufu cyangwa inganda zikomeye za CO2 zikomeje gutanga imyanda CO2, gaze irashobora gufatwa ikabikwa aho kurekurwa mu kirere. Nubwo ikoreshwa muri iki gihe ari rito mu bipimo kandi bihenze, [269] gufata no kubika karubone (CCS) birashobora kugira uruhare runini mu kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere mu kinyejana rwagati. [270] Ubu buhanga, bufatanije na bioenergy (BECCS) bushobora kuvamo imyuka ihumanya ikirere: CO2 ikurwa mu kirere. Kugeza ubu ntiharamenyekana neza niba tekinike yo gukuramo karuboni izagira uruhare runini mu kugabanya ubushyuhe kugera kuri 1.5 ° C. Ibyemezo bya politiki bishingiye ku gukuraho karuboni ya dioxyde byongera ibyago byo kuzamuka kw’isi kuzamuka kurenza intego mpuzamahanga.

Kurwanya

Ingingo nyamukuru: Kurwanya imihindagurikire y’ibihe

Gutera Mangrove hamwe no kubungabunga ibidukikije birashobora kugabanya imyuzure yo ku nkombe.

Inyanja yo gukingira umuyaga ukabije watewe no kuzamuka kwinyanja

Igisenge kibisi kugirango gitange ubukonje mumijyi

Kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere ni "inzira yo guhindura imihindagurikire y'ikirere cyangwa iteganijwe mu kirere n'ingaruka zayo". Imihindagurikire y’ikirere ikenera imihindagurikire y’imihindagurikire y'ikirere, ishobora kuba ihenze cyane. Ubushobozi n'ubushobozi abantu bashobora kumenyera bikwirakwizwa mu turere dutandukanye ndetse no mu baturage, kandi ibihugu biri mu nzira y'amajyambere muri rusange bifite bike. Imyaka 20 yambere yikinyejana cya 21 hagaragaye kwiyongera mubushobozi bwo kurwanya imihindagurikire y’imihindagurikire y’ibihugu byinshi bikennye kandi biciriritse hamwe n’iterambere ry’isuku n’amashanyarazi, ariko iterambere riratinda. Ibihugu byinshi byashyize mu bikorwa politiki yo kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere. Ariko, hariho itandukaniro rinini hagati yimari ikenewe kandi ihari.

Kumenyera kuzamuka kwinyanja bigizwe no kwirinda ahantu hashobora kwibasirwa n’akaga, kwiga kubana n’umwuzure wiyongereye no kurindwa. Niba ibyo binaniwe, umwiherero ucungwa urashobora gukenerwa. Hano hari inzitizi zubukungu mugukemura ingaruka zubushyuhe. Kwirinda akazi gakomeye cyangwa kugira ubukonje ntibishoboka kuri bose. [279] Mu buhinzi, uburyo bwo kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere burimo guhinduranya indyo irambye, gutandukana, kurwanya isuri no kunoza imiterere y’imiterere hagamijwe kongera kwihanganira ikirere gihinduka. [280] Ubwishingizi butuma bagabana ibyago, ariko akenshi biragoye kubona abantu binjiza amafaranga make. Uburezi, abimukira hamwe na sisitemu yo kuburira hakiri kare birashobora kugabanya ingaruka z’ikirere. Gutera mangrove cyangwa gutera inkunga ibindi bimera byo ku nkombe birashobora guhagarika umuyaga. [283]

Urusobe rw'ibinyabuzima ruhuza n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere, inzira ishobora gushyigikirwa n'abantu. Mugukomeza guhuza urusobe rwibinyabuzima, amoko arashobora kwimuka mubihe byiza byikirere. Ubwoko burashobora kandi kwerekanwa mubice bifite ikirere cyiza. Kurinda no gusana ahantu nyaburanga nigice cya kamere bifasha kubaka imbaraga, byorohereza urusobe rwibinyabuzima kumenyera. Byinshi mubikorwa biteza imbere imihindagurikire y’ibinyabuzima, bifasha kandi abantu kumenyera binyuze mu kurwanya ibidukikije. Kurugero, kugarura uburyo busanzwe bwumuriro butuma umuriro wibiza udashoboka, kandi bikagabanya guhura kwabantu. Guha inzuzi umwanya munini bituma habaho kubika amazi muri sisitemu karemano, kugabanya ibyago byumwuzure. Amashyamba yagaruwe akora nk'icyuzi cya karubone, ariko gutera ibiti mu turere tudakwiye birashobora kongera ingaruka z’ikirere. [285]

Hariho imikoranire hamwe nubucuruzi hagati yo kurwanya no kugabanya. Kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere akenshi bitanga inyungu z'igihe gito, mu gihe kugabanuka bifite inyungu z'igihe kirekire. Kongera imikoreshereze yubuhumekero bituma abantu barushaho guhangana nubushyuhe, ariko bikongerera ingufu ingufu. Iterambere ryimijyi irashobora gutuma imyuka ihumanya ituruka mu bwikorezi no kubaka. Muri icyo gihe, irashobora kongera ingaruka zo ku kirwa cy’ubushyuhe bwo mu mujyi, biganisha ku bushyuhe bwo hejuru no kwiyongera. [287] Kongera umusaruro w'ibiribwa bifite inyungu nini haba mu kurwanya no kugabanya ingaruka.

Politiki na politiki

Ingingo nyamukuru: Politiki y’imihindagurikire y’ikirere

Igipimo cy’imihindagurikire y’ibihe kivuga ku bihugu ukurikije ibyuka bihumanya ikirere (40% by’amanota), ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu (20%), gukoresha ingufu (20%), na politiki y’ikirere (20%).

Hejuru

Hagati

Hasi

Hasi cyane

Ibihugu byibasiwe cyane n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ubusanzwe byashinzwe uruhare ruto rw’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. Ibi bitera kwibaza ku butabera n'ubutabera. [289] Imihindagurikire y’ibihe ifitanye isano n’iterambere rirambye. Kugabanya ubushyuhe bw’isi byoroha kugera ku ntego z’iterambere rirambye, nko kurandura ubukene no kugabanya ubusumbane. Ihuriro ryemewe mu ntego irambye y’iterambere 13 ariryo "gufata ingamba zihutirwa zo kurwanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere n'ingaruka zayo". Intego ku biribwa, amazi meza no kurengera urusobe rw’ibinyabuzima bifite aho bihurira no guhangana n’ikirere.

geopolitike y’imihindagurikire y’ikirere iragoye. Byakunze gushyirwaho nkikibazo cyo kugendera ku buntu, aho ibihugu byose byungukirwa na mituweli ikorwa n’ibindi bihugu, ariko ibihugu bitandukanye byatakaza kuva mu bukungu buke bwa karubone ubwabyo. Uku gushiraho kwamaganwe. Kurugero, inyungu zamakara ziva mubuzima rusange n’ibidukikije byaho birenze ikiguzi mu turere twose.Ikindi kandi, abatumiza ibicuruzwa biva mu kirere batsindira ubukungu mu bijyanye no guhindura ingufu zisukuye, bigatuma abatumiza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga bahura n’umutungo wangiritse: ibicanwa biva mu kirere. ntibashobora kugurisha. [293]

Amahitamo ya politiki

Politiki, amabwiriza, n'amategeko menshi birakoreshwa mukugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. Kugeza mu mwaka wa 2019, ibiciro bya karubone bigera kuri 20% by’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere ku isi. Carbone irashobora kugurwa imisoro ya karubone hamwe na sisitemu yo gucuruza ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. Inkunga ya peteroli y’ibinyabuzima ku isi yageze kuri miliyari 319 z'amadolari muri 2017, na tiriyari 5.2 z'amadolari mu gihe ibiciro bitaziguye nko guhumanya ikirere biguzwe. [296] Kurangiza ibyo bishobora gutuma 28% bigabanuka ku byuka bihumanya ikirere no kugabanuka kwa 46% by’impfu z’ikirere. [297] Amafaranga yazigamiwe ku nkunga y’ibinyabuzima ashobora gukoreshwa mu gushyigikira ingufu z’isuku aho. Ubundi buryo butaziguye bwo kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere harimo ibipimo ngenderwaho by’imodoka, ibipimo bya lisansi ishobora kongerwa, n’amabwiriza yangiza ikirere ku nganda zikomeye. [299] Ibihugu byinshi bisaba ibikorwa byingirakamaro kugirango byongere umugabane wibyongerewe mumashanyarazi.

Politiki yateguwe binyuze mu butabera bw’ikirere igerageza gukemura ibibazo by’uburenganzira bwa muntu n’ubusumbane mu mibereho. Urugero, ibihugu bikize bifite uruhare runini mu byuka bihumanya ikirere byagombaga kwishyura ibihugu bikennye kugira ngo bihuze. Mugihe ikoreshwa ryibicanwa bigabanuka, imirimo mumirenge iratakara. Kugirango bagere ku nzibacyuho iboneye, abo bantu bakeneye imyitozo kugirango bakore indi mirimo. Imiryango ifite abakozi ba peteroli benshi bakeneye gushora imari.

Amasezerano mpuzamahanga y’ikirere

Andi makuru: Amasezerano y’umuryango w’abibumbye yerekeye imihindagurikire y’ibihe

Kuva mu 2000, ubwiyongere bwa CO2 mu Bushinwa ndetse no ku isi yose bwarenze umusaruro wa Amerika n'Uburayi. [303]

Ku muntu, Amerika itanga CO2 ku kigero cyihuse cyane ugereranije n'utundi turere twibanze. [303]

Ibihugu hafi ya byose ku isi ni ibihugu by’amasezerano y’umuryango w’abibumbye yo mu 1994 yerekeye imihindagurikire y’ikirere (UNFCCC). [304] Intego ya UNFCCC ni ukurinda kwivanga kw’abantu mu buryo bw’ikirere. [305] Nkuko byavuzwe muri iryo koraniro, ibi bisaba ko ingufu za gaze ya parike ihagarara neza mu kirere ku buryo urusobe rw’ibinyabuzima rushobora guhuza bisanzwe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, umusaruro w’ibiribwa ntubangamiwe, kandi iterambere ry’ubukungu rishobora gukomeza. [306] UNFCCC ntabwo ubwayo igabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere ahubwo itanga urwego rwa protocole ikora. Ibyuka bihumanya ikirere byiyongereye kuva UNFCCC yashyirwaho umukono. Inama zayo ngarukamwaka ni intambwe y'ibiganiro ku isi. [308]

Amasezerano ya Kyoto yo mu 1997 yongereye UNFCCC kandi akubiyemo amasezerano yiyemeje kubahiriza ibihugu byinshi byateye imbere kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. Muri iyo mishyikirano, G77 (ihagarariye ibihugu biri mu nzira y'amajyambere) yasunikiraga manda isaba ibihugu byateye imbere "gufata iyambere" mu kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere, [310] kubera ko ibihugu byateye imbere byagize uruhare runini mu kwegeranya imyuka ihumanya ikirere mu kirere. Umwuka w’umuturage nawo wari ukiri muto mu bihugu bikiri mu nzira y'amajyambere kandi ibihugu biri mu nzira y'amajyambere byakenera kohereza byinshi kugira ngo bikemure iterambere ryabyo.

Amasezerano ya Copenhagen yo mu 2009 yagaragaye cyane ko atengushye kubera intego zayo nkeya, kandi yangwa n’ibihugu bikennye harimo na G77. [312] Amashyaka yunze ubumwe yari agamije kugabanya ubushyuhe bw’isi ku gipimo cya 2 ° C. [313] Amasezerano yashyizeho intego yo kohereza miliyari 100 z'amadolari ku mwaka mu bihugu bikiri mu nzira y'amajyambere mu rwego rwo kugabanya no kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere mu mwaka wa 2020, anasaba ko hashyirwaho ikigega cy’ibidukikije. [314] Kugeza mu mwaka wa 2020, iki kigega cyananiwe kugera ku ntego cyari giteganijwe, kandi gishobora kugabanuka mu nkunga yacyo. [315]

Mu mwaka wa 2015, ibihugu byose by’umuryango w’abibumbye byumvikanye n’amasezerano y'i Paris, agamije gutuma ubushyuhe bw’isi buri munsi ya 2.0 ° C kandi bukaba bufite intego yo gukomeza gushyuha munsi ya 1.5 ° C. [316] Amasezerano yasimbuye Protokole ya Kyoto. Bitandukanye na Kyoto, nta ntego zihumanya ikirere zashyizweho mu masezerano y'i Paris. Ahubwo, urutonde rwibikorwa byakozwe bihuza. Ibihugu bigomba guhora byishyiriraho intego zikomeye kandi bigasubiramo intego buri myaka itanu. Amasezerano y'i Paris yasubiyemo ko ibihugu biri mu nzira y'amajyambere bigomba gushyigikirwa n'amafaranga. Kuva mu Kwakira 2021, ibihugu 194 n’umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi byashyize umukono kuri ayo masezerano naho ibihugu 191 kandi Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi byemeje cyangwa byemera ayo masezerano. [319]

Amasezerano mpuzamahanga ya Montreal yo mu 1987, amasezerano mpuzamahanga yo guhagarika kohereza imyuka yangiza ozone, ashobora kuba yarabaye ingirakamaro mu gukumira ibyuka bihumanya ikirere kuruta icyerekezo cya Kyoto. ku buryo bugenewe kubikora. [320] Ivugururwa rya Kigali ryo mu mwaka wa 2016 ry’amasezerano ya Montreal rigamije kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere cya hydrofluorocarbone, itsinda ry’imyuka ihumanya ikirere yagize uruhare mu gusimbuza imyuka ya ozone yabujijwe. Ibi byatumye Protokole ya Montreal amasezerano akomeye yo kurwanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere.

Ibisubizo byigihugu

Mu 2019, inteko ishinga amategeko y'Ubwongereza yabaye guverinoma ya mbere y’igihugu yatangaje ko ikirere cyihutirwa. Ibindi bihugu n’ububasha byakurikiranye. [323] Muri uwo mwaka, Inteko ishinga amategeko y’uburayi yatangaje "ikirere n’ibidukikije byihutirwa". Komisiyo y’Uburayi yerekanye amasezerano y’ibihugu by’i Burayi hagamijwe guhindura Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi mu 2050. [325] Ibihugu bikomeye muri Aziya byasezeranye bisa: Koreya yepfo n’Ubuyapani byiyemeje kutagira aho bibogamiye muri 2050, naho Ubushinwa mu 2060. [326] Mu 2021, Komisiyo y’Uburayi yashyize ahagaragara itegeko ryayo “Fit for 55”, rikubiyemo amabwiriza agenga inganda z’imodoka; imodoka zose nshya ku isoko ry’iburayi zigomba kuba imodoka zeru ziva mu 2035. [327] Mu gihe Ubuhinde bufite intego zikomeye zo kongera ingufu, burateganya kandi kwagura amakara mu gihugu cyane.

Kugeza mu 2021, hashingiwe ku makuru yavuye muri gahunda z’ikirere 48 z’igihugu, zihagarariye 40% by’amasezerano y’i Paris, byagereranijwe ko ibyuka bihumanya ikirere bizaba biri munsi ya 0.5% ugereranije n’urwego rwa 2010, munsi y’intego zo kugabanya 45% cyangwa 25% kugeza gabanya ubushyuhe ku isi kugeza kuri 1.5 ° C cyangwa 2 ° C, [329]

Sosiyete

Guhakana no gutanga amakuru atariyo

Andi makuru: Impaka ziterwa n'ubushyuhe ku isi, Fossil yongerera ingufu lobby, guhakana imihindagurikire y’ibihe, hamwe n’igitekerezo cy’ubugambanyi ku isi

Ibyatoranijwe byatoranijwe kuva mugihe gito kugirango bibeshye ko ubushyuhe bwisi butiyongera. Ibara ry'ubururu ryerekana ibihe bigufi byerekana ubushyuhe bwigihe kirekire (red redlines). Utudomo twubururu twerekana icyiswe ubushyuhe bwisi. [330]

Impaka rusange zerekeye imihindagurikire y’ikirere zagize ingaruka zikomeye ku guhakana imihindagurikire y’ikirere no gutanga amakuru atari yo, byatangiriye muri Amerika kandi kuva ubwo bikwira mu bindi bihugu, cyane cyane Kanada na Ositaraliya. Abagize uruhare mu guhakana imihindagurikire y’ikirere bagize ihuriro ryatewe inkunga kandi ihuriweho n’amasosiyete y’ibikomoka kuri peteroli, amatsinda y’inganda, ibigo byita ku bitekerezo by’aba conservateurs, hamwe n’abahanga mu bya siyansi. Kimwe n'inganda z'itabi, ingamba nyamukuru z'aya matsinda kwari ugushidikanya ku makuru ya siyansi n'ibisubizo. Benshi bahakana, bakirukana, cyangwa bagashidikanya bidafite ishingiro ku bwumvikane bwa siyansi ku bijyanye n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere bwiswe “abakekeranya n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere”, abahanga mu bya siyansi benshi bavuga ko ari amakosa. [333]

Hariho uburyo butandukanye bwo guhakana ikirere: bamwe bahakana ko ubushyuhe bubaho na gato, bamwe bakemera ubushyuhe ariko bakavuga ko ari ingaruka kamere, ndetse bamwe bagabanya ingaruka mbi z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. [334] Gukora ibintu bidashidikanywaho kuri siyanse nyuma byaje kuba impaka zakozwe: bituma abantu bemera ko hari ukutamenya gushidikanya ku bijyanye n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere mu bumenyi bwa siyansi hagamijwe gutinza impinduka za politiki. Mu ngamba zo guteza imbere ibyo bitekerezo harimo kunenga ibigo bya siyansi, [336] no kwibaza impamvu abahanga ku giti cyabo. Urugereko rwerekana imbuga za interineti n’ibinyamakuru byamagana ikirere byateje ikibazo cyo kutumva neza imihindagurikire y’ikirere.

Kumenyekanisha rubanda n'ibitekerezo

Andi makuru: Itumanaho ry’ikirere, Itangazamakuru ryerekeye imihindagurikire y’ikirere, n’ibitekerezo rusange ku bijyanye n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere

Abaturage basuzugura cyane urugero rw'ubwumvikane bwa siyansi bwerekana ko abantu batera imihindagurikire y'ikirere. Ubushakashatsi bwakozwe kuva muri 2019 kugeza 2021 [339] [3]

Imihindagurikire y’ibihe yaje kumenyekana ku rwego mpuzamahanga mu mpera za za 1980. Bitewe n’ibitangazamakuru mu ntangiriro ya za 90, abantu bakunze kwitiranya imihindagurikire y’ikirere n’ibindi bibazo by’ibidukikije nko kubura ozone. [342] Mu muco uzwi cyane, filime y’imihindagurikire y’ikirere Umunsi ukurikira ejo (2004) hamwe na documentaire ya Al Gore Ukuri kutorohewe (2006) yibanze ku mihindagurikire y’ikirere. [341]

Intara zikomeye z’akarere, uburinganire, imyaka n’itandukaniro rya politiki zirahari haba mu kwita ku baturage no gusobanukirwa n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Abantu benshi bize cyane, ndetse no mu bihugu bimwe na bimwe, abagore n’urubyiruko, wasangaga babona ko imihindagurikire y’ikirere ari ikibazo gikomeye. [343] Icyuho cy’amashyaka nacyo kibaho mu bihugu byinshi, [344] kandi ibihugu bifite imyuka ihumanya ikirere ikunze kutita cyane. [345] Ibitekerezo ku mpamvu z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere biratandukanye cyane hagati y’ibihugu. Impungenge ziyongereye uko ibihe byagiye bisimburana, [344] kugeza aho mu 2021 abaturage benshi mu bihugu byinshi bagaragaza ko bahangayikishijwe cyane n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, cyangwa bakabona ko ari ibintu byihutirwa ku isi. [347] Inzego zo hejuru zo guhangayikishwa no gushyigikira abaturage muri politiki zita ku mihindagurikire y’ikirere.

Imihindagurikire y’ibihe

Ingingo z'ingenzi: Imihindagurikire y’ibihe hamwe n’imanza z’imihindagurikire y’ibihe

Ikirere yariye imyigaragambyo isaba abayobozi ba politiki gufata ingamba zo gukumira imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Bashobora gufata uburyo bwo kwerekana imyigaragambyo rusange, kugabanya ibicanwa biva mu kirere, imanza n'ibindi bikorwa. Imyiyerekano ikomeye irimo imyigaragambyo yishuri ryikirere. Muri iki gikorwa, urubyiruko ku isi rwigaragambyaga kuva mu mwaka wa 2018 basiba ishuri ku wa gatanu, batewe inkunga n’umwangavu wo muri Suwede Greta Thunberg. [350] Ibikorwa rusange byo kutumvira kwabaturage byakozwe nitsinda nka kwigomeka kwa Extinction bigaragambije mu guhagarika imihanda no gutwara abantu. [351] Imanza zikoreshwa cyane nk'igikoresho cyo gushimangira ibikorwa by'ikirere bituruka mu bigo bya Leta n'ibigo. Abaharanira inyungu kandi batangiza imanza zigamije guverinoma kandi bagasaba ko bafata ingamba zikomeye cyangwa kubahiriza amategeko ariho yerekeye imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Imanza ziregwamo amasosiyete y’ibikomoka kuri peteroli muri rusange arasaba indishyi z’igihombo n’ibyangiritse.

Amateka

Ushaka kumenya byinshi kuriyi ngingo, reba Amateka yubumenyi bwimihindagurikire y’ikirere.

Ubuvumbuzi bwambere

Iyi ngingo yo mu 1912 isobanura mu buryo bweruye ingaruka za pariki, uburyo gutwika amakara bitera dioxyde de carbone itera ubushyuhe bw’isi n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. [354]

Mu myaka ya 1820, Joseph Fourier yasabye ko hajyaho parike kugira ngo asobanure impamvu ubushyuhe bw’isi bwari hejuru y’ingufu zizuba zonyine zishobora gusobanura. Ikirere cy'isi kibonerana ku zuba, bityo urumuri rw'izuba rugera hejuru aho ruhinduka ubushyuhe. Ariko rero, ikirere ntikiboneka neza kugirango ubushyuhe buturuka hejuru, kandi bufata bumwe muri ubwo bushyuhe, nabwo bushyushya isi. [355]

Mu 1856, Eunice Newton Foote yerekanye ko ingaruka zo gushyushya izuba ari nyinshi ku mwuka ufite imyuka y'amazi kuruta umwuka wumye, kandi ko ingaruka ari nyinshi hamwe na dioxyde de carbone (CO2). Yanzuye avuga ati "Ikirere cya gaze cyari guha isi yacu ubushyuhe bwinshi ..." [356] [357]

Guhera mu 1859, [358] John Tyndall yemeje ko azote na ogisijeni - hamwe hamwe 99% by'umwuka wumye - bibonerana ubushyuhe bukabije. Nyamara, imyuka y'amazi na gaze nka metani na dioxyde de carbone bikurura ubushyuhe bwaka kandi bikongera gusohora ubwo bushyuhe mu kirere. Tyndall yasabye ko impinduka ziterwa na gaze zishobora kuba zarateje imihindagurikire y’ikirere mu bihe byashize, harimo n’ibarafu.

Svante Arrhenius yavuze ko imyuka y'amazi mu kirere idahwema gutandukana, ariko kuba CO2 yibanze mu kirere byatewe n’imiterere y’igihe kirekire. Ubushyuhe buturutse ku kwiyongera kwa CO2 byongera ubwinshi bwumwuka wamazi, bikongerera ubushyuhe muburyo bwiza bwo gutanga ibitekerezo. Mu 1896, yasohoye icyitegererezo cy’ikirere cya mbere cy’ubwoko bwacyo, avuga ko kugabanya urugero rwa CO2 byashoboraga gutuma igabanuka ry’ubushyuhe ritangiza igihe cy’ibarafu. Arrhenius yabaze ubwiyongere bw'ubushyuhe buteganijwe kuva gukuba kabiri CO2 kugera kuri 5-6 ° C. [360] Abandi bahanga mu ikubitiro bashidikanyaga kandi bemeza ko ingaruka za parike zuzuye kugira ngo hongerwemo CO2 nyinshi ntacyo byahindura, kandi ko ikirere cyaba cyigenga. [361] Guhera mu 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar yasohoye ibimenyetso byerekana ko ikirere cyari gishyushye kandi urugero rwa CO2 rwazamutse, [362] ariko ibarura rye ryahuye n’ibyo. [361]

Gutezimbere ubwumvikane buke

Reba kandi: Ubwumvikane bwa siyansi ku bijyanye n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere

Mu myaka ya za 1950, Gilbert Plass yakoze moderi irambuye ya mudasobwa irimo ibice bitandukanye byo mu kirere hamwe na infragre. Iyi moderi yahanuye ko kongera urugero rwa CO2 byatera ubushyuhe. Muri icyo gihe kimwe, Hans Suess yabonye ibimenyetso byerekana ko urugero rwa CO2 rwazamutse, kandi Roger Revelle yerekanye ko inyanja itazakira ubwiyongere. Nyuma aba bahanga bombi bafashije Charles Keeling gutangira amateka yo gukomeza kwiyongera, byiswe "Keeling Curve". [361] Abahanga mu bya siyansi bamenyesheje rubanda, [363] kandi akaga kagaragaye mu buhamya bwa Kongere ya James Hansen mu 1988. Akanama gashinzwe guverinoma ku bijyanye n’imihindagurikire y’ibihe (IPCC), kashyizweho mu 1988 kugira ngo gatange inama zemewe na guverinoma z’isi, byatumye ubushakashatsi bw’inzego zinyuranye. [364] Muri raporo za IPCC, abahanga basuzuma ibiganiro bya siyansi bibera mu binyamakuru byasuzumwe n’urungano. [365]

Hariho ubumenyi bwuzuye bwa siyansi bwerekana ko ikirere gishyuha kandi ko ibyo biterwa nibikorwa byabantu. Kugeza mu mwaka wa 2019, amasezerano mu bitabo biherutse agera kuri 99%. [366] [367] Nta rwego rwa siyansi ruhagaze mu gihugu cyangwa mpuzamahanga ruvuga rumwe n'iki gitekerezo. Ubwumvikane buke bwateje imbere ko hagomba gufatwa ingamba zimwe na zimwe zo kurinda abantu ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Amashuri y’ubumenyi y’igihugu yahamagariye abayobozi b’isi kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya isi. Raporo y'isuzuma rya IPCC 2021 yavuze ko "bidashidikanywaho" ko imihindagurikire y’ikirere iterwa n'abantu. kurikirana aho byavuye